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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 18

2018-09-12 04:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 944 WTNT24 KNHC 120258 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...AMENDED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AMENDED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.3W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.6N 54.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.7N 57.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 60.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 63.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.2N 69.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)

2018-09-12 01:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ISAAC LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Isaac was located near 14.6, -52.2 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 17A

2018-09-12 01:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 465 WTNT34 KNHC 112334 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...ISAAC LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 52.2W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Martinique * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac as additional watches or warnings will likely be issued tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 52.2 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday night, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening forecast afterward on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible overnight Wednesday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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