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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2018-09-11 16:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 378 FONT14 KNHC 111456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) X(28) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) X(30) X(30) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 28(45) 1(46) X(46) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 3(42) X(42) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 29(51) X(51) X(51) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 21(45) 1(46) X(46) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 16(31) X(31) 1(32) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)

2018-09-11 16:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR ISAAC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Isaac was located near 14.6, -49.7 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 16

2018-09-11 16:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 768 WTNT34 KNHC 111453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR ISAAC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 49.7W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for Dominica. The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Martinique * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Montserrat A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac as additional watches could be issued this afternoon or evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.7 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening forecast afterward on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across the southern Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across portions of the Windward Islands. STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible early Thursday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 16

2018-09-11 16:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 044 WTNT24 KNHC 111453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR DOMINICA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N 57.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.1N 59.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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