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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-09-12 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 709 WTNT24 KNHC 120833 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 53.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 53.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 58.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 70.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 53.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 19
2018-09-12 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 710 WTNT34 KNHC 120833 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 53.5W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaac later this morning and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the tropical storm and the extent of its winds. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-12 07:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 05:34:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 03:34:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-12 07:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Isaac was located near 14.5, -53.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 18A
2018-09-12 07:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 499 WTNT34 KNHC 120533 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 200 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...ISAAC MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 53.0W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.0 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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