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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-08-21 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 814 WTNT43 KNHC 210849 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 Tropical Depression Thirteen remains very disorganized this morning. The associated convection is elongated from northwest to southeast, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern end of the convective area. Additionally, satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the mid-level center is located several hundred miles to the southeast of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data suggested the possibility that the system was an open wave. However, the currently available data is ambiguous on whether the system still has a closed circulation, so it will be maintained as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy through about 96 h. A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain north of the depression during the next few days, steering the cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After that, the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical Depression Thirteen may interact with Tropical Depression Fourteen, which is also forecast to be in the Gulf by that time, with the result of these things being a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest. The track guidance has shifted southward since the last advisory, with the UKMET shifting far enough to the south that it takes the system over the Caribbean south of Cuba. The new forecast track is also shifted a bit southward from the previous track. However, it lies to the north of the GFS, the UKMET, and the various consensus models. It also lies north of the ECMWF model from 24-72 h. The intensity forecast remains low confidence. The separation between the low- and mid-level centers, as well as some westerly shear and dry air entrainment, suggests that significant strengthening is unlikely during the next 24 h or so. The dynamical models suggests the centers will become more vertically aligned around 36-48 h and that the shear should diminish. However, the system could be close to Hispaniola during this time, and be near Cuba thereafter, especially if it moves south of the forecast track. The upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico should be generally favorable for development if the cyclone doesn't get too close to Tropical Depression Fourteen. The possibilities range from the system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and it lies a little below the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands later today through Saturday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 17.8N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-21 10:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 21 the center of Thirteen was located near 17.8, -58.5 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 6

2020-08-21 10:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 58.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may overflow their banks. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today through Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-08-21 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210848 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND... LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 58.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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