je.st
news
Tag: thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-20 06:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200437 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 Corrected date in rainfall statement ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 04:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 02:53:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 02:53:57 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-20 04:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200252 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the central tropical Atlantic has now developed a well-defined center of circulation and maintained enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the thirteenth cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The depression already has some banding features on its north and west sides as evident in geostationary satellite and microwave images. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0100 UTC and a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB. The depression has been moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/17 kt. It should be noted that the initial motion is somewhat uncertain given that the system has only recently formed. A subtropical ridge currently over the central Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next several days and should be the primary steering feature for the depression through the forecast period. This pattern should keep the depression on a fairly quick west-northwest track during the next several days, taking the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night and near the Greater Antilles and southeastern Bahamas this weekend. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there is some north-south spread with the GFS being on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern end. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the guidance suite. The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the depression to strengthen, with the wind shear expected to remain relatively low while the system moves over warm SSTs and remains in a moist airmass. These conditions should promote gradual strengthening and it seems quite likely that the cyclone will be a tropical storm when it moves near or north of the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. The bigger question is how much interaction will there be with the Greater Antilles. If the depression moves on the south side of the guidance envelope, further strengthening would be limited due to land interaction. Conversely, if the system gains more latitude and moves north of these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for more significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast, which is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands tomorrow. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.6N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 04:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 19 the center of Thirteen was located near 14.6, -47.9 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-20 04:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 200251 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 8(36) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 4(29) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 1(38) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39) 1(40) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »