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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-20 22:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 202052 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 14(32) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 13(37) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 12(42) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 10(35) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 23(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 6(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 3(41) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 2(45) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 28(47) X(47) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 15(37) 1(38) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 7(47) X(47) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 1(42) X(42) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-20 22:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES... CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.9W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.9W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 53.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 20:06:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 16.0, -52.8 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 20:06:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 18:06:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 17:36:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-08-20 20:06:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201806 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 52.8W ABOUT 700 MI...1120 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 52.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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