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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-08-20 11:25:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200924 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 49.8W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 49.8W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 49.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics

2020-08-20 11:09:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 09:09:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 09:09:42 GMT

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-08-20 11:01:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200901 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 There has been little change in the organization of Tropical Depression Thirteen during the past several hours. An area of ragged but persistent convection continues near the estimated center position, and there is some outer banding in the southern semicircle. Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to build westward to the north of the Greater Antilles during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement with this scenario, but there remains a spread between the GFS/UKMET on the south side of the guidance and the Canadian/HMON on the north side. Overall, the envelope has shifted a little to the south since the previous advisory and the new forecast track, which lies just to the north of the consensus models, is also nudged southward. The new track calls for the cyclone to pass near the Leeward Islands in 36-48 h, near or north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 48-60 h, and then near or over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas by 72 h. Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to moderate shear during forecast period. However, the guidance responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions. The HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane by 120 h. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system degenerating into an open wave by 120 h. The UKMET and Canadian models are between these extremes. The weak GFS solution appears to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the cyclone. Between these factors and the possibility of land interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed little from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.2N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-20 11:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 15.2, -49.8 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2020-08-20 11:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 200900 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 2(25) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 1(37) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 13(40) X(40) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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