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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 14:53:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 14:53:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-20 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201452 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 The organization of the depression has not changed much overnight or this morning. An area of convection has persisted near the estimated center, with some banding noted over the northwestern portion of the circulation. An earlier SSMIS overpass was very helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center. The ASCAT data along with subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity. The depression continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 290/18 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed from before. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast to build westward and strengthen over the next several days. This pattern is expected to keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading throughout the forecast period. The dynamical models continue to agree on this overall scenario, but there some differences in both forward speed and how close it gets to the Greater Antilles. In general, the models that indicate a stronger cyclone favor a more northern track, while those which depicted a weaker system are along the southern and faster side of the envelope. The latest consensus aids are little north of the previous track, and the new NHC forecast lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is slightly north of the previous advisory, and not far from the GFS ensemble mean. The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater Antilles. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 16:50:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 16.0, -52.0 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-20 16:50:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 499 WTNT33 KNHC 201450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 52.0W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 52.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-20 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 201450 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 22(38) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 8(39) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 8(44) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 3(45) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) 2(38) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 23(48) 1(49) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 9(48) X(48) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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