je.st
news
Tag: thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-09-05 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 96.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Mexican state of Veracruz should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and the system should drift eastward and southward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain offshore of Mexico through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-09-05 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 052034 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 96.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 96.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 96.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 96.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 95.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.8N 95.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.4N 95.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 97.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 96.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Graphics
2016-09-20 11:13:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 08:42:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 09:07:08 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
thirteen
Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-09-20 10:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 200841 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-20 10:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200841 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression is only slightly better organized than yesterday, with some broken convective banding over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Overall, however, the system is elongated from southwest to northeast. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain in a low shear environment for the next 48 hours or so, and therefore some strengthening is forecast during that time frame. Later in the period, the dynamical environment is likely to become hostile for strengthening since shear associated with an upper-level trough is forecast to increase to around 30 kt in 3-4 days. Given this expected change in the large-scale environment, weakening should begin in 2-3 days and the system is predicted to revert to tropical depression status by the end of the forecast period. Although the dynamical guidance shows some relaxation of the shear at the end of the period, the current thinking is that by that time the system will be too disrupted to be able to recover. The official intensity forecast is close to the LGEM guidance through 72 hours and a little below it at days 4 and 5. There is considerable spread in center fixes and the initial motion is an uncertain 295/8 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge along 30W-40W is likely to induce a more northwestward track during the next day or so, followed by a return to a west- northwestward motion as the ridge rebuilds a bit to the north of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the system is forecast to turn back toward the northwest due to another weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is somewhat slower and to the right of the previous one but close to the new dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 14.4N 29.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.4N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.6N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 18.4N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 23.4N 40.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 26.5N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »