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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2019-09-23 10:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 230856 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 60Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-23 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230852 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the depression is gradually getting better organized, with upper-level outflow improving in all quadrants. However, the low-level and mid-level circulations do not appear to be vertically aligned quite yet, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the west of the low-level center. As a result, the intensity has been maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 270/13 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so, resulting in the center passing well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. On days 4 and 5, a motion toward the northwest is expected as the cyclone begins to move into a weakness in the ridge. The new track guidance remains tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were required. The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 22.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2019-09-23 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230837 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 22.2W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 22.2W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 21.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 22.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics

2019-09-23 04:45:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:45:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:45:44 GMT

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-09-23 04:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230244 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has developed enough circulation and organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. The convection is currently organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an additional smaller band to the southeast. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 270/14. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the depression should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4 days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent strengthening. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h. Some southwesterly shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in strength from 96-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 10.8N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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