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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-20 04:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 200251 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 8(36) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 4(29) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 1(38) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39) 1(40) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-20 04:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200250 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 47.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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