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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-09-04 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 917 FONT12 KNHC 040236 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-04 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY LUNGES TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 3 the center of Larry was located near 15.5, -43.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-04 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 885 WTNT32 KNHC 040236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY LUNGES TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 43.3W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 43.3 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A motion toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin Sunday morning and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-09-04 04:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040236 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 45.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 49.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 51.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 53.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 55.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 58.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 43.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-03 22:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032054 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 Over the course of the day, Larry's appearance has become more impressive. The eye has been gradually becoming better defined on visible satellite imagery as the center cloud top temperature has been warming on the infrared channel. Several microwave passes have been received since the last advisory. The most recent pass at 1900 UTC suggested the eye and surrounding eyewall convection is becoming better defined, though still weaker on the east side. 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak classifications were still both CI 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, the objective satellite estimates have been rising quickly, with the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate up to 84 kt. Thus, the NHC advisory intensity has been raised to 85 kt for this advisory, making Larry a category 2 hurricane. Larry's motion has remained fairly steady to the west-northwest throughout the day, at 285/14 kt. The latest track reasoning remains unchanged, with Larry being steered to the west-northwest around the southern periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge centered north of the hurricane. This ridge axis will gradually become oriented to the northeast of Larry with time, allowing the tropical cyclone to gradually gain more latitude. Because the ridge is quite large, even as its axis shifts eastward, a portion of the ridge will still remain to the north of the storm. The end result is that Larry should only slowly gain a more poleward component of motion as the system also gradually slows down. While the track guidance spread remains small for the first 48-60 hours of the forecast, a bit more longitudinal spread becomes apparent thereafter, which appears related to how much mid-level ridging remains poleward of the cyclone. The latest 12z ECMWF run has a distinctly stronger ridge, oriented more poleward in comparison to the 12z GFS run. Thus, it is not surprising to see that the ECMWF track is a bit further west and slower than the GFS. The latest NHC track forecast this cycle was also adjusted a bit slower, following the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. However, it is interesting to note the latest 12z ECMWF ensembles are even slower than this track forecast, and future slower adjustments may be needed if these track solutions verify. It remains too soon to determine what impacts Larry may pose to the Island of Bermuda, but interests there should monitor updates in the forecast in the subsequent days. With the recent improvement in Larry's structure on satellite imagery, the hurricane may be starting another rapid intensification (RI) cycle, as suggested by the high RI probabilities given in the DTOPS guidance. However, the earlier microwave data also suggested that there were a lot of concentric bands outside of the primary eyewall, and it is not out of the question that another eyewall replacement cycle could begin in the next 24-36 hours. Instead of attempting to forecast these often stochastic processes, the latest NHC intensity forecast will instead show a healthy rate of deepening over the next several days, now taking Larry to 120 kt in 48 hours. Afterwards, there still remain questions as to how much the vertical wind shear will increase over Larry, with the ECMWF-SHIPS indicating higher shear that could affect Larry's inner-core structure, while the GFS-SHIPS showing much lower shear. Warmer sea-surface temperatures also await the hurricane in the 60-96 hour period. Due to these competing factors, the intensity forecast during this period will only show very gradual weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, but still remains lower than the higher HAFS-B and COAMPS-TC models. It should be noted that the majority of the guidance also shows Larry becoming a very large hurricane, with a significant expansion of the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii also forecast. Significant ocean swells generated by the increasingly large wind field of Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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