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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-03 10:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 08:35:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 09:22:45 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-03 10:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030833 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 Larry continues to gradually become better organized. Satellite images show a fairly compact central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally evident. Beyond the inner core, banding features are gradually becoming more distinct, especially to the south of the center. The latest Dvorak classifications at 0600 UTC was 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on those estimates and the improving trend, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 80 kt. Larry is moving west-northwestward at 17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected on Friday and through the weekend as the hurricane remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge. By early next week, Larry is expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The environmental factors appear favorable for steady strengthening during the next few days with wind shear remaining low and mid-level moisture fairly high. The only slightly negative factor is marginally warm 26-27 deg C waters that Larry will be moving over during the next couple of days, which should prevent rapid intensification. All of the models are in general agreement that Larry will become a major hurricane in a day or so with continued strengthening through day 3, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Some weakening is shown by the end of the forecast period when the wind shear could increase a little. This forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are possible, which could cause intensity fluctuations that are challenging to predict. The leading swell front from Larry is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.6N 38.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.2N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.2N 43.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 17.3N 46.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 18.6N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.1N 52.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 27.1N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-03 10:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 030831 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-03 10:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 3 the center of Larry was located near 14.6, -38.9 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-03 10:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 38.9W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 38.9 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected during the next few days. A turn to the northwest is forecast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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