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Hurricane Larry Graphics

2021-09-03 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 14:49:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 14:49:49 GMT

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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2021-09-03 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 583 FONT12 KNHC 031448 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

2021-09-03 16:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LARRY APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 3 the center of Larry was located near 14.8, -40.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 12

2021-09-03 16:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 291 WTNT32 KNHC 031448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 40.7W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 40.7 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. A turn to the northwest is forecast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-09-03 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 553 WTNT22 KNHC 031447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 42.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 51.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 40.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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