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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-03 22:47:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 20:47:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2021 20:47:34 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-03 22:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 3 the center of Larry was located near 15.0, -42.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-03 22:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032045 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 42.0W ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the weekend. A turn to the northwest is forecast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. Significant swells will likely reach Bermuda and the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-09-03 22:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 032045 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-03 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 381 WTNT22 KNHC 032041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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