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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

2020-10-22 10:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 22 the center of Epsilon was located near 30.6, -60.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 14

2020-10-22 10:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 675 WTNT32 KNHC 220848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 60.9W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 60.9 West. Epsilon has been wobbling around since last evening, but its longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2020-10-22 10:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 647 FONT12 KNHC 220848 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 33 11(44) 3(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-10-22 10:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 714 WTNT22 KNHC 220847 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......270NE 200SE 120SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..660NE 540SE 570SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 60.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 130SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 130SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 140SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...260NE 250SE 160SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 280SE 250SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 60.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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