je.st

Home › epsilon

Tag: epsilon

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-10-21 22:55:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212055 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106 kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season. Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east. Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus. As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight, and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h. With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period. Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 29.6N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-10-21 22:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 212052 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) BERMUDA 34 28 31(59) 10(69) 2(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 12

2020-10-21 22:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 60.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.0 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some small fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

Tags: number public advisory hurricane

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-10-21 22:51:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212051 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......390NE 120SE 120SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..720NE 360SE 450SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...330NE 150SE 130SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...260NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane