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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-07-23 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 232031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 118.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 122.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 14.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-23 16:59:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 14:59:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 14:59:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-23 16:56:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Irwin's center is exposed to the north and west of its associated deep convection due to about 15 kt of northerly shear. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5, so 35 kt will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion remains westward at 280/6 kt, with Irwin located south of a weak low-level ridge and almost midway between Tropical Storms Greg and Hilary. This orientation should cause Irwin to maintain a westward, albeit much slower, motion during the next several days. However, once Greg degenerates into a remnant low in about 4 days, a binary interaction between a stronger Irwin and Hilary is more likely to occur, which could force Irwin to turn west-southwestward at the end of the forecast period. There is some notable spread in the guidance, highlighted by the GFS and its ensemble mean on the southern end of the guidance envelope, and the ECMWF and its ensemble mean on the northern edge. The HWRF is also north of most models by the end of the forecast period, presumably because it is not capturing any interaction between Irwin and Hilary. The updated NHC forecast is nudged a little south on this advisory, and it is south of the model consensus after day 3 to account for an Irwin-Hilary track interaction. The shear over Irwin is expected to decrease within the next 12-24 hours, which should allow the cyclone to begin a sustained period of strengthening. Sea surface temperatures will be between 27-28 degrees Celsius, and the ambient environment appears sufficiently moist to foster intensification. The NHC intensity forecast favors a blend of the ICON intensity consensus, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble, showing Irwin reaching hurricane intensity in about 48 hours. This forecast is not too different from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.0N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.0N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.0N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.0N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 15.0N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 14.8N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 14.2N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 14.0N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-23 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 the center of Irwin was located near 15.0, -115.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 5
2017-07-23 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231455 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...IRWIN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 115.8W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 115.8 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irwin could become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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