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Tropical Storm IRWIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2017-07-24 10:49:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 15N 120W 34 X 13(13) 55(68) 22(90) 2(92) 1(93) X(93) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 29(31) 30(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 16(29) 11(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm IRWIN (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-24 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of IRWIN was located near 14.8, -117.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm IRWIN Public Advisory Number 8

2017-07-24 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240848 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...IRWIN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 117.4W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 117.4 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irwin is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-07-24 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240848 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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