je.st
news
Tag: irwin
Hurricane Irwin Public Advisory Number 14
2017-07-25 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Irwin Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...IRWIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE HILARY LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 120.1W ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irwin was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 120.1 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Wednesday night. Irwin will likely drift westward on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-07-25 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 252035 TCMEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.1W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.1W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.3N 121.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.8N 122.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.3N 123.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.7N 123.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Irwin Graphics
2017-07-25 16:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 14:39:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 14:39:47 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
irwin
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-07-25 16:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251435 TCDEP5 Hurricane Irwin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Recent microwave imagery confirms that Irwin has a well-defined mid-level eye, which has also been apparent in shortwave infrared satellite imagery. On the whole, satellite intensity estimates have risen a little, so Irwin's initial intensity is now set at 70 kt. Various shear analyses indicate that about 15 kt of southerly shear has developed over Irwin, which isn't surprising since microwave data has hinted that the low-level center may be located just a bit south of the mid-level eye. This shear is expected to continue for another 24 hours or so, which will likely prevent Irwin from any additional significant strengthening. After 24 hours, Irwin's proximity to Hurricane Hilary is likely to induce some weakening, as well as the potential for upwelling of colder water due to Irwin's slow motion through 72 hours. More definitive weakening is likely by day 5 as Irwin reaches higher latitudes and much colder waters. The intensity models are fairly stable at the moment the latest runs did not suggest that any changes were needed to the previous forecast. It should be noted that while most of the global models maintain Irwin as a separate and distinct cyclone from Hilary through day 5, the ECMWF model indicates that Irwin could be absorbed by that time. Irwin appears to be moving slowly westward, or 270/5 kt. The cyclone's future track will largely be dictated its the binary interaction with Hilary. First, as Hilary approaches from the east, Irwin is expected to dip west-southwestward and southwestward during the first 48 hours. It will likely stall by day 3, but then get pulled northward and northwestward around the eastern side of Hilary's circulation. Although there is still considerable spread in the track models after 72 hours, the regional HWRF and HMON models are now on board with the binary interaction. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is much closer to the TVCN multi-model consensus than it has been during the past few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.2N 120.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 14.7N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 14.2N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 13.9N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 14.4N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-07-25 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251435 PWSEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 65 7(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 2(74) X(74) 15N 120W 64 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 1(17) 1(18) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 14(26) 4(30) 1(31) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] next »