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Hurricane Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2017-07-25 10:58:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250857 PWSEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 47 49(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 4 63(67) 3(70) X(70) X(70) 1(71) X(71) 15N 120W 64 1 33(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 14(22) 15(37) 2(39) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-25 10:57:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 the center of Irwin was located near 15.5, -118.7 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Irwin Public Advisory Number 12

2017-07-25 10:57:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250857 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Irwin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...IRWIN BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 118.7W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irwin was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 118.7 West. Irwin is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with a motion toward the west-southwest expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight, with weakening expected on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 12

2017-07-25 10:56:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250856 TCMEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.3N 119.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.6N 121.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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