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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-07-25 04:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Irwin has been gradually strengthening throughout the day. Satellite images show that deep convection has been persisting over the center and in fragmented curved bands, especially over the south and west portions of the circulation. Microwave images indicate that the system is vertically titled from south to north, likely due to southerly shear. The latest Dvorak CI numbers are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and 4.0/65 kt from SAB. These estimates and higher ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt. Irwin is crawling west-northwestward, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/3 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through early Tuesday as a weak mid-level ridge remains in place to the north of the storm. A west-southwestward motion is expected between 24 and 72 h as Hurricane Hilary approaches from the east. Beyond that time, the track forecast is very challenging as the models remain quite divergent with the spread being more than 700 n mi at day 5. The UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS global models show Irwin rotating around the east side of the circulation of Hilary and ultimately merging with that hurricane. The CMC model shows some binary interaction between the tropical cyclones, but keeps the systems separate, and the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show no interaction between the systems and continue to move Irwin westward. The NHC track forecast favors the global models and shows a slow northward motion on days 4 and 5. Needless to say, the long range track forecast is of low confidence. The environmental conditions should support some additional strengthening during the next day or so, and Irwin is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Thereafter, an increase in vertical wind shear, associated with the outflow of Hilary, and slightly cooler waters along the forecast track should cause a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and in fair agreement with the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.2N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.1N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 14.8N 120.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 14.5N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-25 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Irwin was located near 15.2, -118.2 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 11
2017-07-25 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...IRWIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 118.2W ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.2 West. Irwin is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Irwin is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-07-25 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 120W 34 5 85(90) 5(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 120W 50 X 53(53) 18(71) X(71) 1(72) X(72) 1(73) 15N 120W 64 X 27(27) 13(40) 1(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 16(35) 4(39) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-07-25 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.1N 119.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.8N 120.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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