je.st
news
Tag: irwin
Tropical Storm IRWIN Public Advisory Number 9
2017-07-24 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241458 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 117.5W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 117.5 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow, generally westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irwin is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Advisory Number 9
2017-07-24 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 241458 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.8N 117.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.9N 120.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.4N 122.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-24 11:20:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The convective structure of Irwin has improved quite a bit this evening. A recent AMSU microwave pass at 0541 UTC suggests that deep convection is wrapping nearly all the way around a developing mid-level eye. It isn't yet clear if this feature is aligned with the low-level center. Current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0600 UTC were all 45 kt, so that value has been set as the initial intensity. Determining the initial motion of Irwin has been tricky, since recent microwave fixes of the center between 2100 UTC yesterday and 0600 UTC today suggest that the center has barely moved during that time. It is assumed that at least some westward motion is still occuring, and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/5 kt. In the short term, Irwin should continue slowly westward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. At days 4 and 5, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the degree to which Irwin's track will be affected by Hurricane Hilary to the east, with the global models still generally showing more and the regional models less interaction. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the north at day 5, it assumes that only a little interaction will take place, and remains south of the GFS and ECMWF consensus. The environment in the short-term still appears favorable for intensification and the guidance is a little higher for this advisory. The NHC forecast now calls for Irwin to become a hurricane within 24 hours. After about 2 days, outflow from Hilary should begin to reach Irwin, resulting in an increase in vertical shear. The ECMWF model in particular shows a large increase in shear at days 3-5, and the NHC forecast therefore begins to show gradual weakening at that time. The intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm IRWIN Graphics
2017-07-24 10:57:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:57:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:57:46 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
irwin
Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-24 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240849 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The convective structure of Irwin has improved quite a bit this evening. A recent AMSU microwave pass at 0541 UTC suggests that deep convection is wrapping nearly all the way around a developing mid-level eye. It isn't yet clear if this feature is aligned with the low-level center. Current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0600 UTC were all 45 kt, so that value has been set as the initial intensity. Determining the initial motion of Irwin has been tricky, since recent microwave fixes of the center between 2100 UTC yesterday and 0600 UTC today suggest that the center has barely moved during that time. It is assumed that at least some westward motion is still occuring, and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/5 kt. In the short term, Irwin should continue slowly westward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. At days 4 and 5, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the degree to which Irwin's track will be affected by Hurricane Hilary to the east, with the global models still generally showing more and the regional models less interaction. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the north at day 5, it assumes that only a little interaction will take place, and remains south of the GFS and ECMWF. The environment in the short-term still appears favorable for intensification and the guidance is a little higher for this advisory. The NHC forecast now calls for Irwin to become a hurricane within 24 hours. After about 2 days, outflow from Hilary should begin to reach Irwin, resulting in an increase in vertical shear. The ECMWF model in particular shows a large increase in shear at days 3-5, and the NHC forecast therefore begins to show gradual weakening at that time. The intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] next »