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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-09-23 16:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231458 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm John Graphics
2024-09-23 16:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 14:48:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 15:28:47 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-23 16:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231447 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite images show that John has been strengthening quickly. A large area of cold cloud tops between -70C and -85C is present over the tropical cyclone, with tight curved bands wrapping around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are T-3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T-3.0/45 kt from SAB. Recent objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging between 57 and 76 kt. A 23/0836 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass shows that the inner core has become much better defined, showing a small eye-like feature on microwave imagery, although there are no signs of an eye showing up yet in infrared or visible images. A 23/1011 UTC SSMIS pass showed a similar structure to the AMSR-2 pass. Based on the above data and imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. John will continue to be located within an environment of extremely warm ocean temperatures, light wind shear and a moist low- to mid-level troposphere as it approaches the coast of Mexico. While the hurricane regional and dynamical models show a more limited amount of additional strengthening, the statistical models like SHIPS and LGEM are at the high end of the guidance suite. Given that the system has already intensified by 30 kt in the past 18 h, and given that the SHIPS rapid intensity index is showing greater than an 85 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 h, the NHC intensity forecast will now explicitly show rapid strengthening over the next 24 h. This intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance suite. It is possible that John could peak even higher than shown below between the 24 h forecast point and when it is forecast to move inland around 36 hours. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor future forecast updates on John. Based on center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, John's motion is estimated to be northward, or 0 degrees at 3 kt. John is embedded in very weak steering currents, and the primary steering mechanism is likely the southwesterly monsoonal flow that the cyclone is embedded in. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the west of the previous official forecast and now lies very near the latest model consensus. It should be noted that the track forecast and timing of when the center reaches the coast is more uncertain than normal. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to become a hurricane later today and additional strengthening is likely before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.8N 98.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.7N 97.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.0N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.2N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics