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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 30
2015-07-18 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182034 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Dolores still has a band of tropical storm force winds within its eastern semicircle, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt. However, deep convection continues to weaken, and the center of the cyclone is now over sea surface temperatures between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius. Maximum surface winds should gradually decrease as the circulation spins down, and Dolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not regenerate deep convection near the center. Most of the global models then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the coast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated in the official forecast at that time. Dolores is now moving north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt, around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to steer the remnant low north-northwestward and then northward until dissipation. The track guidance envelope has shifted a bit eastward, and the official forecast follows that trend, lying just to the west of the various multi-model consensus solutions. Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona, southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please refer to statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-07-18 16:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181433 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 Dolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from the remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the warmer water to the south. Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt, and the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt. Cold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current weakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24 hours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern California coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS and the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN). Dolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of California. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift northward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for the recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very similar after 24 hours. This solution is very close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus. Moisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the southwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada. Please refer to statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-07-18 10:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180841 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 Dolores' cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory. The cyclone has been maintaining a small area of relatively shallow convection southwest of the partially exposed low-level center. An ASCAT pass at 0454 UTC showed peak winds of 34-kt winds over the western part of the circulation, and it is assumed that higher winds are still occurring closer to the center. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt to be consistent with the earlier ASCAT pass. The cyclone is temporarily passing over a narrow tongue of relatively warmer water but should reach much colder waters within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once this occurs, Dolores should lose any remaining convection and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day or so. The large circulation will take some time to spin down even without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/09. Global models show Dolores turning northwestward and north-northwestward within 24 hours as it is steered between a subtropical ridge over the southern United States and a mid- to upper-level trough offshore the California coast. Once the cyclone fully decouples and becomes shallow, it should decelerate and move northward or northeastward in the low- level flow prior to dissipation. The new track forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous one to be closer to the multi-model consensus. Moisture associated with Dolores should spread into southern and central California late this weekend and early next week, possibly triggering isolated areas of heavy rains across the region. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.9N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 25.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 27.4N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 29.5N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 31.3N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-07-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for about 12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is occurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than 75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated as a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions should inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so gradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected over the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for dissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models. The initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC model guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique should make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next 48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The official track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-07-17 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172035 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Recently received ASCAT data shows that Enrique has weakened to a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt. There is currently no deep convection associated with the cyclone, although several bands of low-topped showers are present. Unless there is a significant increase in convection, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less. After that, the dynamical guidance suggests that the remnant low should persist for several more days before dissipating. The initial motion is 270/2. The track guidance indicates that Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The new track forecast is again similar to the previous forecast and is near the center of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.5N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 20.3N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 19.9N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 20.2N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 23.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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