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Grid Modernization Event Series: An Even-Handed Discussion

2014-10-23 21:35:00| Transmission & Distribution World

Preparing for the Power Evolution, an online conference on November 6, is devoting an entire track to Grid Modernization issues. The Grid Modernization track puts the emphasis on implementing hardware and software solutions for real results in improved reliability and optimized operations. read more

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-10-23 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230236 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The system has not produced a significant area of organized deep convection since late this morning and it is therefore being declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration. The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and the multi-model consensus. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to this system. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 18.9N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-10-22 22:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222031 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day. Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24 hours or so. The GFS changed its tune significantly between the 06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one. On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone in the next run. The depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or 115 degrees at 4 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This pattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over Yucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 19.2N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 19.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 18.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 18.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-10-22 16:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221453 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 Satellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday. The circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well organized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing near the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate westerly shear which should limit development. However, it is still expected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over the Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the depression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3 days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the the cyclone survives its path over land. On this basis, the NHC forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days. Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift out and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone. This synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However, the final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly uncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF model solutions. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 19.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.3N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 18.8N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 18.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-10-22 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220839 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently cloud tops have warmed. Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized. The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this morning to check its intensity. The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening of the system over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. After weakening due to its passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent reintensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Since the system is quite small, it might be disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC forecast. The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt. A generally westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the forecast period. The official track forecast is nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north of the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that due to the possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more uncertain by days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 19.4N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 19.1N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 18.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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