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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 14

2014-11-02 15:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Satellite images show that Vance has continued to strengthen this morning. The cyclone has a cold cloud-topped CDO, with some overshooting tops near the center, surrounded by banding features. Objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS now support an intensity of 70 kt, which makes the system a hurricane. Vance has fairly strong upper-level outflow over all but the eastern portion of the circulation. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours, and the official intensity forecast is near the high end of the numerical guidance in the short term. By 36 hours, the dynamical guidance shows a large increase in southwesterly shear due to strong upper-level winds north of 15N latitude, and this should halt any additional strengthening. Vance is expected to weaken rapidly on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period, and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by day 4. This is similar to the previous official wind speed forecast. Latest center fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving northwestward, or 310/13 kt. Vance is expected to round the western periphery of a mid-level ridge and turn northward to north-northeastward toward a trough over the southwestern United States during the next couple of days. By late in the forecast period, the cyclone is likely to become a shallow system that will turn to the left within the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 12

2014-11-02 03:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 Vance's convective organization has improved considerably since the previous advisory with a central dense overcast feature having developed during the past few hours. In addition, recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave satellite imagery indicate that a small precursor eye feature with a diameter 10-12 nmi has developed. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on consensus satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate remains 290/11 kt. For the next 24 hours or so, Vance is expected to move west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north. After that, a turn to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves around the ridge and ahead of an approaching mid-tropospheric trough that will be moving across Baja California in the 48-72 hour time frame. By late in the forecast period, Vance is expected to weaken rapidly, with the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling. The remnant low is forecast to meander off of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern tip of Baja California. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. The mid-level moisture has apparently increased based on the recent development of significant inner-core convection. With such low vertical shear conditions and the aforementioned eye-like feature, rapid intensification is a very distinct possibility during the next 24-36 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast has been increased above the previous advisory forecast through 48 hours, which is above the intensity consensus model ICON and is about midway between the GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts. After that, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory due to expected strong southwesterly vertical shear conditions of at least 35-40 kt, which should result in rapid weakening of Vance and degeneration into a remnant low on Days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 10.2N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 11.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 16.0N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 18.8N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.0N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 22.0N 108.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 11

2014-11-01 21:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012043 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 Vance appears to be gradually organizing in satellite imagery. The central convection has increased a bit over the past few hours, and convective banding has also increased in coverage. However, satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The increase in convective coverage is consistent with a gradual moistening of the near-storm environment as seen in the SHIPS model analyses, and conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening during the next 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and shows Vance reaching hurricane status in about 2 days. After that time, the shear increases dramatically, which should result in quick weakening to remnant low status by day 4. The NHC prediction is close to the Decay-SHIPS model and a little above the intensity consensus through the period. The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Vance is feeling the effects of a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north. Vance should move generally west-northwestward through 24 hours and then turn northward by 48 hours as it moves between the ridge and an amplifying mid/upper-level trough digging southward over the southwestern United States and Baja California. Late in the period, a weakening Vance is expected to turn north-northeastward as the cyclone decouples in the strong shear, leaving a remnant low drifting erratically by the end of the forecast period. The guidance has trended faster in the short term this cycle, and generally shows a broader recurvature through 48 hours. The NHC forecast has been trended in that direction, but lies a little east of the multi-model consensus at 36 and 48 hours. After that time, the spread in the guidance increases. The ECMWF and UKMET models both show Vance interacting to some degree with a disturbance moving northward around the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. In particular, the ECMWF shows Vance weakening and then merging with the other system, resulting in a track far to the south of the rest of the models. The GFS remains farther north and east, but shows a westward turn by day 5. The NHC forecast late in the period has been slowed down and shows the remnant low meandering between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes at days 4 and 5. However, this forecast is east of the multi-model consensus out of respect for continuity, and confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 10.1N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 10.8N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 15.2N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 18.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 10

2014-11-01 15:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011447 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 The structure of Vance continues to improve, albeit slowly. The first-light visible images show that the center is in the northern portion of the central dense overcast, with recent microwave data suggesting the development of a more solid inner core. A blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support raising the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Vance has ample opportunity to strengthen for about the next 2 days while it remains over very warm waters with low shear conditions. Little change is made to the forecast intensity during that time, which is just a bit higher than the model consensus. Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase markedly, with rather hostile conditions expected while the cyclone approaches Mexico. Guidance has trended sharply downward at days 3-5, and the latest NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. Vance is moving about 280/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to move much faster toward the west-northwest later today, and then move northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by day 2. Similar to the last advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward during the first 2 days. Thus, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48 hours. After that time, the mid-level trough is expected to steer Vance to the north and north-northeast on days 3 and 4. Guidance is coming into better agreement on this solution, with the 06z GFS having trended left of its 00z solution, and no changes were made to the official NHC forecast. While the latest NHC prediction still shows Vance moving onshore of the coast of Mexico around day 5, it is a distinct possibility that the low-level center will remain offshore due to the cyclone decoupling from the mid-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 9.6N 103.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2014-11-01 09:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 Vance's structure has been improving since the last advisory. A cluster of deep convection has developed near the center, and more defined curved bands are forming on the outer edges of the circulation. The maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on a consensus of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The first three days of the forecast are fairly straightforward. Vance is expected to turn west-northwestward later today, accelerate northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by day 2, and curve toward the north on day 3. The track guidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward after 36 hours. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one from 36 to 72 hours. While Vance turns northward, light vertical shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moistening mid-level troposphere should allow the storm to reach hurricane strength in 2-3 days. This part of the forecast closely follows the SHIPS, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble guidance. The forecast is a little more complex after day 3. Once Vance begins to recurve, it will encounter southwesterly shear that increases from 20-25 kt on day 3 to well over 40 kt on days 4 and 5. This environment is likely to cause the cyclone to decouple, with the mid-level circulation being sheared off toward Mexico and the low-level circulation being left behind south of the Baja California peninsula. While the operational GFS brings Vance to the coast of Mexico in 96 hours, the parallel run of GFS and the ECMWF model have much slower and weaker solutions and do not bring the surface center to the Mexican coast. As additional support for this scenario, most of the GFS and European ensemble members show Vance lingering or even dissipating offshore. At this time, the operational GFS is considered an outlier solution, and the NHC track forecast is closer to a blend of the European and parallel GFS models. Due to the shear, Vance is expected to weaken rapidly after day 3, possibly becoming a remnant low near or offshore the coast of Mexico by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 9.7N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 11.6N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 13.2N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.5N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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