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Remnants of TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-10-19 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190237 TCDEP5 REMNANTS OF TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation of Trudy has dissipated. Thus, this will be the last advisory on this system. Even though the cyclone has dissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly northeastward over the next couple of days. This pattern should continue the threat of heavy rains, resulting in flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.4N 98.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TRUDY 12H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-10-18 22:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 182041 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 After an earlier degradation of the convective cloud pattern, Gonzalo has made a recent comeback with the cloud shield having become more symmetrical and the eye a little better defined. The initial intensity of 80 kt is being maintained at 80 kt based on an 1443 UTC ASCAT-A overpass which showed a peak of 77 kt in the eastern quadrant and the improved satellite presentation. The same overpass also indicated that the 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had expanded, and this is indicated in the new initial wind radii. Gonzalo is accelerating rapidly northeastward and is now moving at a brisk 035/31 kt. The hurricane has become deeply embedded within the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of a high amplitude trough located over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. Gonzalo is expected to move northeastward for the next 24 hours or so and then turn east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic on Day 2. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the track forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. As Gonzalo continues to gain latitude, the cyclone's wind field should continue to expand, accompanied by only slow weakening. Gonzalo will be moving over sub-20C SSTs by 12 hours and be under southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt, which is expected to result in transition to a strong post-tropical extratropical cyclone by 24 hours. Gradual weakening is expected after the transition occurs until dissipation occurs in about 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model through 24 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.3N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 44.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 49.6N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 55.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-10-18 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182031 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Radar from Acapulco, surface observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the circulation of Trudy is becoming disrupted by the high terrain. While no direct measure of its intensity is available, a reasonable spin down of the peak winds suggest about 30 kt at the advisory time. As the center will remain inland over high terrain for the next day or so, Trudy should become a remnant low shortly and then dissipate. Trudy has been moving north-northeastward at about 5 kt, though the initial position is quite uncertain. The low-level steering currents become very weak and track guidance shows little motion during the next 24 hours or so. Thus the NHC track forecast calls for little motion until dissipation. Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to remain nearly stationary, torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.2N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0600Z 17.3N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-10-18 16:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181456 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 Gonzalo's convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially asymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak Technique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained winds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate indicates about 85 kt. A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial intensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory. As Gonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and experiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next day, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day, extratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU Cyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather than getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by the global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in about three days. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon the GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical. Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is being advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the subtropical ridge. The system should accelerate as it gets picked up by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical. The NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the previous advisory. The initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were analyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a 0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 36.8N 61.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-18 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181451 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around 1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern portion of the circulation. Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little motion. Since Trudy is already inland over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner. Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little, torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.2N 98.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 17.5N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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