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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 19

2014-11-03 21:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032044 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Earlier today it appeared that Vance was beginning to weaken. However, that trend has ended and recent satellite images suggest that the hurricane is a little better organized. The eye is again evident in satellite images and the inner core of the cyclone is well intact. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is now moving northward at about 10 kt located on the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Water vapor images show a high amplitude trough digging to the west of Vance. This feature is expected to steer the system north-northeastward during the next couple of days, bringing a much weaker cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 2 to 3 days. Even though Vance has strengthened some this afternoon, steady or even rapid weakening is still anticipated due to a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and drier air. In fact, the SHIPS model shows extremely hostile shear conditions with values near 30 kt tonight and more than 40 kt tomorrow. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and lies very close to the model consensus. The current forecast calls for Vance to become a tropical depression offshore. However, if Vance does not begin to weaken soon, then the chances of tropical storm conditions reaching the coast will increase. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.4N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 18

2014-11-03 15:54:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031454 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Recent microwave images show that the inner core of Vance remains vertically aligned, however, the outflow is becoming increasingly restricted over the southwestern portion of the circulation due to southwesterly shear. Vance has likely peaked in intensity and the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The vertical shear over Vance is forecast to dramatically increase during the next 24 to 48 hours. In fact, the SHIPS model predicts shear to increase to 37 kt in 24 hours, and to 54 kt in 48 hours. These very hostile conditions should cause the hurricane to rapidly weaken during the next couple of days, and Vance is forecast to become a tropical depression in 48 hours. Although a 72-hour forecast as a remnant low is indicated, it is highly possible that this system will have dissipated by that time. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/10 kt. Vance has started its much anticipated northward turn ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. Vance should turn northward this afternoon, and then recurve north-northeastward ahead of the trough tomorrow. There continues to be some run-to-run inconsistencies in the model guidance as to how vertically coherent Vance will remain and how fast it will move north-northeastward. The GFS and ECMWF now bring a weakening cyclone to the coast, meanwhile the HWRF and UKMET show a much slower, and more erratic motion in a couple of days. The updated NHC track has trended faster than the previous advisory and is close to the multi-model consensus, however, the new forecast is slower than the GFS and ECMWF models. Moisture from Vance and its remnants are likely to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.3N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.6N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 17

2014-11-03 09:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030836 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity, with very cold-topped inner core convection. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, and the initial intensity is held at that value as well. Vance's upper-level outflow is becoming slightly impeded over its southwest quadrant, suggesting that southwesterly shear over the hurricane is already beginning to increase. The window of opportunity for additional strengthening is quickly closing, since the SHIPS model indicates the vertical shear increasing to 24 kt in 12 hours and to 30 kt in 24 hours. The NHC forecast shows only a slight increase in strength today, with a weakening trend beginning in 12-24 hours, and is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus. Although the track forecast brings the cyclone near the coast by 72 hours, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely hostile and the system should be reduced to remnant low or even completely dissipate by that time. There has been a little deceleration and the motion is now 320/12 kt. Over the next day or two, Vance should recurve around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then likely to move north-northeastward between the ridge and a trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. By the end of the forecast period, the motion could become erratic since the circulation will probably become quite shallow and be steered by the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional adjustments to the wind radii were done based on ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 16

2014-11-03 03:59:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030258 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Vance has displayed a pinhole eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops both in microwave imagery and sporadically in visible/infrared imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB along with a 2124Z AMSU objective analysis from CIMSS indicates an intensity of 90 kt. The combination of very low vertical shear, quite moist and unstable thermodynamics, warm SSTs, and large upper-level divergence have contributed toward Vance's rapid intensification during the last 24 hours, during which time the maximum winds have doubled. Vince has about 12 hours of conducive conditions remaining before a high amplitude upper- to mid-level trough currently west of Baja California begins to adversely affect the tropical cyclone. Vertical shear should quickly ramp up while the moisture, convective instability, and upper-level divergence drop during the next two days. Vance is predicted to peak in intensity shortly followed by rapid weakening, most similar to the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models during the next 24 hours and to the IVCN multi-model consensus thereafter. This forecast is higher than that in the previous advisory due to the stronger initial intensity, but lower at days 2 and 3. Vance is moving 310 degrees at 15 kt, as it is being advected around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast. As the aforementioned trough digs southward, Vance should undergo recurvature beginning in about a day, at the very low latitude of about 18 North. The tropical cyclone should then turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday and start approaching southwestern Mexico. However, the shear should become so severe that the tropical cyclone is likely to decouple in about three days with the remnant low not quite reaching the coast. The NHC official track prediction is based upon the TVCE multi-model consensus, and is faster than the previous advisory but not as far northeast as the GFS-ECMWF combination. An alternative scenario is that Vance reaches the southwestern Mexican coast as a tropical storm in about three days, as seen in the deterministic ECMWF model run. However, given the quite hostile vertical shear conditions expected, and that the ECMWF solution appears to be an outlier compared to its ensemble members, this is not considered to be likely at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.7N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 15

2014-11-02 21:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Vance continues to gain strength. An eye has recently become apparent in visible satellite images and the fairly compact inner core of the hurricane is getting better organized. In addition, banding features are well established on the north and east sides of the circulation. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, following the Dvorak intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB. Vance is currently in favorable environmental conditions with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, wind shear less than 10 kt, and high amounts of moisture. Since the hurricane is expected to remain in this environment for about another 12 to 24 hours, continued strengthening is predicted in the short term, and the NHC forecast lies at the high end of the guidance during that time. Beyond 24 hours, however, a substantial increase in southwesterly shear and a decrease in environmental moisture should cause a steady weakening trend, and Vance will likely degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 14 kt steered by a mid-level ridge situated to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico. A turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a northeastward motion as a large trough moves eastward toward the cyclone. There has been an eastward shift in the guidance beyond 48 hours in this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The initial wind radii were modified based on a pair of ASCAT passes at around 1700 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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