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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-30 15:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 The depression has become a little better organized with a more prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However, recent microwave images show that the center remains on the southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression. Although the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will conservatively remain 30 kt. Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for the next day or two. As a result, the latest model guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the trend of showing only slow intensification. After that time, the global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more significant strengthening at longer ranges. The NHC forecast is closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment. Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening after that time. The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity, leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches the Baja California peninsula. The official NHC forecast is a little faster than the consensus after accounting for the unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-10-30 09:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300841 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 Deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Acapulco, Mexico, has become more concentrated overnight, and recent microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggest that the low-level center has become better defined. Therefore, the system is being designated as a tropical depression. The satellite data indicate that the center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.5 and 1.5, respectively. A blend of these estimates support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The depression is over warm water and expected to remain in a low shear environment during the next several days. The main limiting factor will be some drier air in the low to mid-levels. As a result, gradual strengthening is predicted during much of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little above the intensity guidance through the first couple of days. After 72 hours, the NHC forecast is in good agreement with the HWRF which brings the cyclone to hurricane strength in about 4 days. Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening after that time. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward later today as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 11.0N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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“YouTube-Proof” Topic for Discussion at 2015 IPPE
2014-10-30 01:00:00| ThePigSite - Industry News
US - The Market Intelligence Forum is returning to the 2015 International Production & Processing Expo (IPPE).
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Remnants of HANNA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-10-28 03:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280233 TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 The circulation of Hanna no longer appears to be well defined based on satellite imagery and surface observations. Since the cyclone center has dissipated, this will be the final advisory on the remnants of Hanna. While cloud top temperatures have warmed markedly near the earlier estimated center location, heavy rainfall remains a significant threat. The remnants of Hanna could produce 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm) of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches (230 mm), across Honduras and northern Nicaragua. These rains could produce flash flooding and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm HANNA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-10-27 14:22:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271322 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 Deep convection associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine have persisted and become better organized since yesterday. In addition, ASCAT data from overnight indicate that the system was producing 30-35 kt winds to the west of the center, just off of the coast of Nicaragua. Therefore, advisories have been re-initiated, with the system being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna. The center of Hanna is very close to the coast of northeastern Nicaragua. The system is moving west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt, and should be inland over Nicaragua by this afternoon. A similar motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the cyclone dissipating by late Tuesday. The main hazard associated with Hanna will be very heavy rainfall. Hanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across Honduras and northern Nicaragua. These rains will likely produce flash flooding and mud slides. Since Hanna is so close to the coast and about to move inland, this forecast advisory was sent a couple of hours earlier than usual to expedite the release of forecast information. An intermediate advisory will be issued at 2 PM EDT, followed by a full advisory at 5 PM EDT, as scheduled. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 14.0N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 13.3N 84.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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