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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-10-18 11:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180908 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Corrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing, and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor continued intensification. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the cyclone's proximity to land, which would end the current intensification phase. Given the current trend, the NHC intensity forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated. Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward, with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours. Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna de Chacahua. It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.2N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.4N 98.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0600Z 16.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1800Z 16.6N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-10-18 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180835 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters. The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone dissipates in about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 34.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 44.2N 54.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 49.7N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z 53.0N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 56.0N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-10-18 04:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180257 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data, various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in Devonshire Parish. The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on recent ADT values of 97 kt. Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or 030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA. Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of Newfoundland. The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 32.7N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 35.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 41.2N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 47.0N 49.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 57.0N 11.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-18 04:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180251 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better organized with very deep convection near the center and significant bands in the southern semicircle. Microwave satellite data and radar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence of some inner-core features forming. Dvorak intensity estimates are increasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best agreement with the Data-T number from TAFB. Although the environment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone doesn't have much time before it makes landfall. Thus, the official forecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt, which lies on the higher side of the consensus. Best estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt. Deep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward until landfall within 24 hours. Guidance has trended a little slower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend. Although there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near the coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by the very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours. The primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.5N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 17.0N 99.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Transportation Experts Group Policy Discussion
2014-10-17 23:25:09| PortlandOnline
2035 Comprehensive Plan TEG Policy Presentation Slides. This slide show was presented Auguest 28th, 2014 PDF Document, 2,637kbCategory: Drafts + Documents
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