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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-10-22 05:01:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220301 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 Satellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection associated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and northern portions of the circulation during the past few hours. Thus the low is being designated as a tropical depression. Earlier aircraft data supported winds around 30 kt. The depression is over warm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the system is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected to to become a overnight or early Wednesday. The cyclone should weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner. The depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the cyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is likely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF shows the tropical cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the depression a separate system. For now, the NHC forecast shows a weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.4N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-10-19 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192039 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the system has completed its transformation into an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next 24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-10-19 16:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191434 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C, Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845 UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3 days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 49.0N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 54.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 57.0N 6.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 62.1N 2.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-10-19 10:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190832 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15 deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post- tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 46.3N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 50.1N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0600Z 53.4N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1800Z 56.2N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-10-19 04:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190250 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45 nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii have been increased accordingly. Gonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model guidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were made to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a deep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical ridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Recent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo should continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours, which should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical cyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result in Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical extratropical cyclone. Gradual weakening is forecast after the transition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model through 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 42.3N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1200Z 54.0N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 57.0N 8.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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