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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 30

2014-08-20 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200841 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 Although Karina's low-level center is embedded beneath the cold cirrus canopy, microwave imagery indicates that it is located on the northeastern edge of the deep convection. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have not changed from six hours ago, and a 0602 UTC ASCAT pass confirmed that maximum winds are about 45 kt. Moderate east-northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue affecting Karina during the next several days, and thermodynamic conditions will gradually become less favorable once the cyclone begins gaining some latitude beyond day 3. The official NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous forecast, holding Karina steady at 45 kt for the next 48 hours and then showing weakening to a remnant low by day 5 over significantly colder water. This scenario is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM models, as well as the ICON intensity consensus. Karina continues to move slowly westward with an initial motion of 270/4 kt. All of the track models now indicate that Karina will slow down and turn southward, making a small counterclockwise loop during the next 48 hours as it comes under the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's larger circulation. Karina will then backtrack on its past track, accelerating northeastward and northward between days 3 and 5 while it swings around the south and east sides of Lowell. As mentioned in the previous forecast, the track guidance had been shifting eastward in recent cycles, and that trend has continued. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is again pushed eastward, although it still lies along the left side of the guidance envelope near the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 10

2014-08-20 10:41:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 29

2014-08-20 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has redeveloped near Karina's center, and convective banding features have improved during the past 6 hours now that the cyclone is moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface temperatures. The result is that intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to a consensus T3.0/45 kt, so the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt. Karina is moving slowly westward or 275/04 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous reasoning. Karina is forecast to stall and/or make a small loop in 24 to 48 hours when steering currents are forecast to weaken considerably. By 72 hours and beyond, the cyclone is expected to come under the influence of southwesterly steering flow generated by the very large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell, which is currently located well to the east of Karina. The NHC model guidance is actually in very good agreement on the development of this rather complex synoptic flow pattern and eventual interaction between the two tropical cyclones. The only significant difference since the previous advisory is that the model guidance envelope has shifted well to the east. The official forecast track follows suit and has been shifted slightly to the east, but not nearly as far east as the consensus model TVCE due to the uncertainty in which direction Karina will move after the cyclone stalls and/or completes a looping motion. The outflow from Tropical Storm Lowell is expected to affect Karina within the next 12 hours, producing modest easterly to southeasterly vertical wind shear across the cyclone through 72 hours. The result is that little change in intensity is forecast, although there will likely be some small fluctuations in the intensity during that time. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is expected to steadily increase as Karina moves closer to Tropical Storm Lowell, which should induce steady weakening. By Day 5, Karina will be moving over 22C SSTs, causing the system to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus intensity model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 15.9N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 9

2014-08-20 04:34:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 28

2014-08-19 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 Although Dvorak T-numbers no longer directly support 45 knots, visible satellite images show that Karina still has a vigorous circulation. An 1807 UTC ASCAT-B overpass missed the low-level center and the western half of the circulation where stronger winds could exist, but one 38-kt surface wind vector was indicated southeast of the center. Assuming that stronger winds could exist west of the center, the initial intensity is being kept at 45 knots until we have more solid evidence of weakening. The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will likely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but it should not be strong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most likely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next 2 to 3 days because of the marginal environment. After that time, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward and northward by the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the cyclone will likely weaken. Karina is moving westward at 4 knots. The steering currents are forecast to collapse, and Karina is expected to drift westward or even meander for the next 2 to 3 days. Then, as Lowell passes to the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased forward speed within the southwesterly flow associated with the large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the dynamical guidance, which unanimously brings Karina northeastward toward Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.7N 134.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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