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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-14 04:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Analyses from the University of Wisconsin indicate that about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but recent microwave images suggest that Karina is succeeding in maintaining a tight inner core. Maximum winds are held at 45 kt on this advisory based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB and T2.8/41 kt from the ADT. Even though vertical shear is expected to only gradually diminish during the next day or two, its easterly to east-northeasterly direction should still allow strengthening during that time. In fact, the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a 1 in 3 chance of a 25-kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours. Since environmental conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, closely following the SHIPS and FSU Superensemble models during the first 3 days. Only gradual weakening is indicated on days 4 and 5, mainly due to less favorable thermodynamic conditions. Karina continues moving westward, or 275/13 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to continuing exerting its influence for the next several days, and the track guidance is tightly clustered on a westward trajectory through 48 hours. The spread in the guidance beyond 48 hours appears to be the result of how Karina interacts with two adjacent disturbances. The GFS shows Karina interacting with a strengthening cyclone to its west, with the resulting flow keeping it farther north and on the northern side of the guidance envelope. The ECMWF, on the other hand, shows more interaction between Karina and a possible cyclone to its east, which forces Karina southwestward and on the southern side of the guidance envelope. Due to the high uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve by day 5, the official forecast maintains Karina on a general westward, but decelerating, motion toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.4N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.7N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tech group to host Bellingham panel discussion on net neutrality
2014-08-14 00:31:09| Telecom - Topix.net
The Technology Alliance Group for Northwest Washington will host a panel discussion, "Net Neutrality and the Future of Internet Access," on Friday, Aug. 15. The event at the Bellingham Golf and Country Club starts at 11:30 a.m., concluding at 1:15 p.m. Net neutrality is the idea that Internet service providers should allow access to all content ... (more)
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-13 22:51:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132051 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Karina is experiencing some issues with dry air entrainment and modest north to northeasterly wind shear since the previous advisory, which has resulted in some erosion of the large outer convective band on the west side along with the central deep convection. However, two recent scatterometer overpasses indicate that Karina's circulation is well developed and compact, and that the radius of maximum winds has decreased to around 10-15 nmi. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on surface wind data of 40 kt from a 1649 UTC ASCAT-B overpass and 41 kt from a 1736 UTC ASCAT-A overpass, and assuming that the scatterometers are under-sampling the very small inner-core wind field. Karina continues to move westward or 275/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Karina is expected to maintain a general westward motion for the next 5 days as the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The model guidance is tightly packed through 72 hours, with the models diverging significantly after that. However, the model spread has decreased on this cycle now that the new 1200 UTC ECMWF model run has shifted farther to the north, closer to the other global models and the previous NHC forecast track. The new forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. Convection has developed during the past few hours within the dry slot in the eastern semicircle, and a small burst of convection has also developed very near the well-defined low-level circulation center. All of this would suggest that the aforementioned dry air issues will likely be short-lived. Over the next 3 days, the vertical shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt while the cyclone remains over SSTs of 28C-29C and within a fairly moist mid-level environment. Only the proximity to cooler and more stable air just west and northwest of the cyclone precludes a near-term forecast of rapid intensification. However, the trend over the next 72 hours calls for at least steady intensification, with Karina reaching hurricane strength by 36 hours. After that, the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTS and into a more stable air mass, which should induce gradual weakening. However, the low vertical wind shear environment is expected to result in slower weakening than normally would occur over such marginal SSTs on Days 4 and 5. The NHC official intensity forecast remains higher than the ICON intensity consensus model, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and GFDL models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.3N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.6N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 18.2N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 18.4N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-13 10:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130832 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the west of the center of the depression during the last several hours. The banding features, however, have become a little less defined recently. ASCAT passes at 0420 and 0506 UTC showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, and Dvorak intensity estimates also support an intensity of that value. Therefore, the initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. This ridge is expected to build over the Pacific Ocean, which should steer the tropical cyclone westward away from Mexico during the next several days. The model guidance has shifted a little to the north and is faster this cycle, and the official track forecast has been adjusted to account for these changes. The ECMWF is now in better agreement with the remainder of the guidance as the latest run shows less interaction with a developing disturbance to the east of the cyclone. Moderate northeasterly shear is currently affecting the system, which is likely the reason why the convection is currently displaced to the west of the center. The shear is expected to lessen during the next day or so, and the environmental winds are anticipated to remain conducive for development through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, warm water and a relatively moist air mass should also support strengthening. The SHIPS and LGEM models respond to the favorable environment and show a steady strengthening trend. Conversely, the HWRF and GFDL models predict little or no strengthening of the system. Given the aforementioned environmental conditions, the official intensity forecast remains higher than the consensus in favor of the SHIPS and LGEM solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.7N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Fuel Tech, Inc. - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis of...
2014-08-12 12:04:34| Waste Management - Topix.net
The Air Pollution Control technology segment generated revenues of . This segment continues to be affected by the soft electric demand market and low natural gas prices, which leads to fuel switching, unscheduled outages, and combustion units operating less than capacity.
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