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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 8

2014-08-19 22:35:29| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 7

2014-08-19 16:35:31| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 27

2014-08-19 16:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Karina has changed very little during the past few hours. There is a well-defined convective band wrapping around the center, but there is some dry air entraining into the cyclone. The convection is not very deep, and Dvorak T-numbers are on a weakening trend supporting an initial intensity of 45 knots. The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will likely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but should not be strong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most likely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward by the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the cyclone will likely begin to weaken. Karina is already slowing down and is moving westward at 4 knots. An additional decrease in forward speed is anticipated as the steering currents collapse further, and Karina is expected to drift westward or even meander for the next 2 to 3 days. Then, as Lowell passes to the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased forward speed around the southwesterly flow associated with the large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast is very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models, which has been performing quite well with Karina so far. It is also similar to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 15.7N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 15.7N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 17.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 21.0N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-08-19 10:32:56| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 25

2014-08-19 04:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190232 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 Karina has continued to become better organized over the past few hours. A convective cloud band wraps about 80 percent around the circulation, and the Dvorak data T-number from TAFB is now 3.5 which corresponds to an intensity estimate of 55 kt. The vertical shear over the storm has decreased and is forecast to stay low for another 24-36 hours. Upper-level outflow has also increased over the tropical cyclone. Therefore, Karina has an opportunity to intensify some more and it could become a hurricane tomorrow as indicated by the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, east- northeasterly shear is predicted to increase, which should cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model guidance through 36 hours, and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter. The forward motion continues to slow and is now around 255/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Karina should push the tropical cyclone a little farther west over the next day or two. However the westward steering is likely to end in a couple of days as Karina becomes more influenced by the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell passing to its northeast. By late in the forecast period, a broad area of southwesterly low-level flow associated with Lowell should start drawing Karina toward the northeast. The official forecast takes the storm farther northeast late in the period than the previous one, but not as much as some of our better track guidance. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.9N 133.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.9N 134.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 15.9N 135.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 17.5N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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