Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-08-15 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For a brief time this morning, the depression actually developed a broken band of convection that wrapped nearly halfway around the cyclone. However, it didn't persist for long and convection is mostly once again limited to the southwest quadrant. Scatterometer data valid shortly before 18Z supported an intensity of 30 kt. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours after drifting west-southwestward most of the morning. It is forecast to meander for the next several days with little change in structure, strength, or position as it continues to encounter strong upper-level winds but weak low- to mid-level steering flow. Near the end of the forecast period, the GFS indicates that the depression could interact with another low related to current invest 94E, which would cause the depression to move eastward. There is very low confidence in this scenario, and it is not supported by most of the other models. Due to the GFS outlier solution, the model consensus has shifted substantially eastward, however the NHC forecast has only been slightly adjusted in that direction. Given the continued lack of particularly well organized convection, it is possible that the system could either become a remnant low or open into a trough, though neither of those scenarios is explicitly supported by the global or hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-08-15 16:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151442 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The exposed center of Kyle has become elongated this morning. Deep convection remains limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, a consequence of strong upper-level westerly winds. Despite the shear, there are indications that Kyle's winds have increased. A ship (KABP) recently reported 50 kt winds just to the south of Kyle's center. Although the observation was elevated, it still supports increasing the intensity to 45 kt. Kyle will continue to move quickly east-northeastward away from the coast of the U.S. and well south of the Canadian Maritimes today. The tropical storm is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough and will likely continue on its general heading and speed for the day or so, followed by a turn toward due east by early Monday. The tropical storm has remained over the Gulf Stream thus far, which is likely helping it to maintain its tropical structure in the face of an otherwise hostile upper-air environment. Some additional strengthening is possible today or early Sunday before Kyle becomes post-tropical. The exact timing of that transition is still somewhat uncertain, but it is clear that Kyle will become an extratropical cyclone by early next week. After becoming post-tropical, gradual weakening is anticipated until the system becomes poorly-defined and is absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the middle of the week, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-08-15 16:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151433 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine has a sheared cloud pattern in satellite imagery this morning, with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main convective area. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm reported flight-level winds as high as 47 kt at 925 mb, along with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 35-40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The aircraft also reported that, while the area of westerly winds south of the center was small, the circulation is still closed and that the central pressure was near 1008 mb. The storm has moved a little to the left since the last advisory, with the motion now west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. Other than that, there is little change in the forecast track or the forecast track philosophy. During the next 2-3 days, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area. After that, the system is forecast to re-curve to the north and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the high. The new NHC forecast lies to the the center of the tightly- clustered guidance and near the various consensus models. Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h. This should cause the system to weaken, with the new intensity forecast now calling for Josephine to weaken to a depression between 36-48 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. Several global models forecast the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 72 h, and this remains a viable alternative forecast scenario, especially considering how small the closed circulation is. There is a chance that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment after 72 h. However, it is unclear at this time whether there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of that. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.1N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.8N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 23.8N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 25.2N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 26.7N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-08-15 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Depression Ten continues to produce a small area of convection in its southwest quadrant. It would be a stretch to say the convection is particularly organized, but it is persistent nonetheless. The intensity remains 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the lack of notable change to the depression's structure since last night. The depression continues to meander slowly westward, and while it could begin to gain some latitude later today, all of the reliable track models indicate that it won't move very much during the next 5 days. The current structure (or lack thereof) of the cyclone would suggest that it could become post-tropical or even dissipate in the near future. However, this is not supported by any of the dynamical guidance. In fact, looking 5 days ahead in the global and regional models, the depression is still there producing varying amounts of deep convection. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show the system persisting as a tropical depression through day 5. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast which remain near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.2N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.3N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 13.5N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-08-15 10:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to produce disorganized bursts of deep convection to the north and northeast of the estimated center, with little evidence of any banding features. In spite of the shear, the storm is still producing high-level outflow into the strong upper-level winds. The current intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on continuity from the previous scatterometer-based observations, and an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning, and this should provide a good intensity estimate. Since vertical shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to become quite strong over the next few days, a weakening trend is likely to commence in a day or so. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. It is also possible that the system will degenerate into an open wave within the next couple of days, as shown by the global models. It is difficult to locate the center at this time, but it is believed to be situated near the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. This leads to a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area, and then to turn northwest, north, and north-northeast along the periphery of the high. The official track forecast remains close to the NOAA corrected model consensus prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [243] [244] [245] [246] [247] [248] [249] [250] [251] [252] [253] [254] [255] [256] [257] [258] [259] [260] [261] [262] next »