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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-15 10:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150834 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Intermittent bursts of convection continue to develop near the depression's center, before northeasterly shear re-exposes the center of circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. None of the global or regional models make the cyclone a tropical storm, with the only guidance suggesting strengthening being the SHIPS at the end of the forecast period, when the vertical wind shear may finally abate. However,the atmospheric environment begins to dry out by that time. The official forecast no longer shows intensification, and keeps the cyclone a depression for the duration of the 5-day forecast. The depression continues to meander westward, now at 2 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to move the cyclone slowly westward this morning. The ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow the depression to gain a little latitude later this weekend through early next week. Regardless of this motion, the system will not move very far over the next several days. The official forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.4N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 13.2N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 14.2N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 14.5N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 14.4N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-15 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150832 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The low-level center of Kyle continues to be exposed to the west of the deep convection, as strong westerly shear prevails. Although the satellite appearance is not that impressive, the circulation is well intact as indicated by a recent ASCAT overpass that reveals that the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Kyle is currently moving east-northeast at 18 kt, and away from the U.S. coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with a turn to the east and an increase in forward speed thereafter as the system remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. Only slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 h as the cyclone crosses the warm Gulf Stream waters and interacts with an upper-level trough, while battling increasing westerly shear. The forecast track takes Kyle over much cooler waters starting in about 24 h, and by that time, the system is expected to begin interacting with a frontal boundary to its north. This should initiate an extratropical transition that is expected to be complete by 36 h. It should be noted that both the FSU GFS-based phase space forecast and SHIPS guidance suggest that this transition could be completed sooner than indicated. After transition, the extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 38.7N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-15 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150238 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western portions of the depression's circulation this evening, however, the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. There has been little change to the satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer data. As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant change in intensity is forecast during that time. If the cyclone survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen, which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period. The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model intensity consensus. The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone is not expected to move very far over the next several days. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow northwestward motion is expected by early next week. While there remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree that the depression will not move much through the forecast period, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-15 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150237 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 Josephine continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the northeast of its center, however, there is little evidence of any banding features. A fortuitous ASCAT-A overpass has revealed peak winds of 35-40 kt over the northern semicircle of the storm, and the scatterometer ambiguities along with the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is still closed. Based on the scatterometer data, the initial wind speed has been set at 40 kt. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous forecast. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear that is affecting the cyclone is forecast to increase over the weekend and reach values of around 30 kt on Sunday. This is expected to result in gradual weakening by the latter portion of the weekend, and Josephine is predicted to weaken to a tropical depression in about 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 3-4 days. A plausible alternate scenario that is suggested by some of the global models is for the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure, resulting in dissipation of the tropical cyclone within the next few days. The timely ASCAT data was very helpful in determining Josephine's center location. Based on that and the earlier aircraft fixes, the cyclone continues to move west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of Josephine should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next 24-48 hours. After that time, Josephine should turn northwestward, and then northward as a weakness develops in the ridge over the western Atlantic. By late in the period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest official forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical track models, and is very similar to the previous NHC advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 18.3N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.2N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 20.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 21.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.2N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 26.4N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z 33.0N 64.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several hours. The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Despite the system's poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around 40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center. Based on that data and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt. A slightly faster east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected. However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier environment. The extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 38.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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