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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-13 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132034 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The depression's center had been tucked beneath a cluster of deep convection not too long ago, but the convection has begun to wane a bit and has been pushed off to the southwest of the center due to modest northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications suggest that the cyclone is close to becoming a tropical storm, but there is no definitive data to explicitly support that, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the system for the next 2-3 days, but the thermodynamic environment should be favorable enough to possibly allow the depression to just sneak across the tropical storm threshold. The shear begins to abate after about 3 days, but then the atmosphere becomes drier and more subsident, which may make it difficult to maintain organized deep convection. The cyclone also appears to fail to detach from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which does not favor a strengthening system. Therefore, no changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which remains near or just above the intensity consensus. All in all, there is high confidence that the cyclone will not strengthen significantly, but there is much less confidence in whether it will actually become a tropical storm. The initial motion remains 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to maintain a general westward heading through day 5, but the cyclone could oscillate anywhere between southwest and northwest at times. The system will be slowing down considerably in a couple of days, with a forward speed essentially around 2 kt from day 2 to day 5. Except for the GFS, the other models have slowed down and shifted a little farther south on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend. Because of the expected slow motion, however, the new forecast ends up being not too far from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-13 16:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 A just-received ASCAT overpass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds about 70 n mi north of the center of Tropical Depression Eleven, and based on this the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Josephine with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern associated with Josephine has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a ragged central convective feature and a weak band in the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/13 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next several days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more after 72-96 h, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track and a little to the left of the consensus models. Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next 24- 36 h as Josephine moves through an environment of light vertical wind shear. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear as it approaches an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic, which should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward for the first 72 h based on the current intensity. After 72 h, it shows weakening similar to the previous forecast, but not as drastic as the global models that show the storm degenerating to a tropical wave before 120 h. Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm of record in the Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm Jose on August 22, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.5N 51.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.9N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.3N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 27.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-13 16:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131453 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that the depression's low-level center is displaced a little to the northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is still 30 kt. The environment around the depression is not ideal for much strengthening. On one hand, the system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue. However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little further, and the environment appears to become more subsident within the next 2-3 days. In addition, the global models do not show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much strengthening. SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period. Otherwise, the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day period. It's also entirely possible that the system becomes a remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized deep convection to be maintained. The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the forecast period, although the system's forward speed is expected to slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond. The new track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130839 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Recently, however, some new convection is forming closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization of the system may be taking place. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these agencies still support 30 kt. Since the shear is not expected to increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is still forecast in the short term. Beginning around 2-3 days, southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus. The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. The system should continue to move west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3 a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period. The official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35 kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and these are presumed to be rain-contaminated. The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period. Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to move very slowly during the 3-5 day period. Once the steering flow becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone will move very little during that time. The official forecast track splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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