je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-11 16:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 111439 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast. Since then, the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the hurricane has peaked in intensity. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt. The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. After that, there is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models, which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. The new forecast follows the northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The new forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-11 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110844 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition, earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt. Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of 300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory track to the south and the consensus models to the north. Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12 hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-11 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 346 WTPZ44 KNHC 110240 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing (instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4, with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward adjustments could still be required overnight. The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida. In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-10 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 102033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida continues to gradually gain strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and curved bands that surround that feature. Recent microwave images show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it from completely closing off. The satellite intensity estimates have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane. The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island. The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional strengthening seems likely during that time period. After that, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening trend. Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C waters. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days. Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. After that time, the models diverge with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the HWRF, UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida is very close to reaching hurricane strength. A 1218 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a nearly enclosed eyewall that was somewhat eroded on the west side, possibly due to a bit of north-northwesterly shear (as shown by the SHIPS diagnostics). Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, while the objective guidance from UW-CIMSS is about 5-10 kt higher. Because of the gradually improving structure in microwave imagery, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is a blend of the intensity estimates. Located along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which extends from the south-central U.S. southwestward into the Pacific, Elida is moving west-northwestward at 300/13 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high since this ridge will be the main driving force for the next 2-3 days, keeping Elida on a west-northwestward but gradually slowing trajectory. In about 3 days, a weaker Elida will turn westward and slow down even further due to lighter low-level steering winds. The spread in the guidance does increase beyond 60 hours, particularly with the GFS showing a significant poleward motion, but this unlikely scenario appears to be due to the model tracker deviating from the path of the surface circulation. The new NHC track forecast is nudged only slightly north of the previous forecast, mainly due to a continuation of Elida's recent trajectory. This new forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the NOAA-HCCA and TVDG consensus approaches. The SHIPS model suggests that whatever shear is still affecting Elida should die down within the next 12 hours, and the storm has about 24 hours left over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. These conditions should allow for continued strengthening over the next day or so, with rapid intensification still a possibility. For that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is just above nearly all of the guidance at 24 hours. After 24 hours, gradual weakening should commence as Elida moves over cooler waters, and the rate of weakening is likely to accelerate by day 3 once southwesterly shear increases. Elida is expected to become a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5, in accordance with the solutions shown by the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [250] [251] [252] [253] [254] [255] [256] [257] [258] [259] [260] [261] [262] [263] [264] [265] [266] [267] [268] [269] next »