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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-07-13 04:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130239 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina has lacked deep convection for more than 12 hours and is now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The system has therefore become a remnant low and this is the last NHC advisory. The estimated intensity is 30 kt, assuming some spin down has occurred since the last advisory. Cristina is moving westward near 10 kt, and low-level easterly flow should steer the remnant low on this general heading for the next few days. The cyclone is moving over sea surface temperatures of about 23 deg C that will prevent the redevelopment of organized convection. Cristina should continue to gradually spin down during the next 2-3 days until it opens into a trough and dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-07-12 22:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for several hours. The cyclone's circulation now consists of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds as it continues to move over waters of about 23 C and into a progressively drier and more stable surrounding atmosphere. Although intensity estimates continue to steadily decease, the vortex is taking some additional time to spin down, as indicated by a recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed maximum winds of 35 kt over a portion of the cyclone. Based on the ASCAT data, Cristina's intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. Given the environmental conditions, it is unlikely that deep convection will redevelop near Cristina's center, and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low soon. The associated winds will continue to decrease over the next couple of days and the low is forecast to open into a trough within a few days. Cristina is moving westward at 11 kt and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation, as the system is steered by the low level easterlies. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-07-12 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water, and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-07-12 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that Cristina has weakened during the past several hours. Deep convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone, with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a recent scatterometer pass as well. Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear, along with nearby dry air. These factors will likely cause the storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday. The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is earlier as well. The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11. A well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep this general motion going for the next several days. The model guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant changes were made to the track forecast. None of the global models hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so dissipation is now shown by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates, based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51 kt at 1335Z. The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southward initial position. Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus, gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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