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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-07-10 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100843 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina has become better organized during the past several hours. A curved band wraps almost completely around the center, and a ragged eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite images. The cyclone is beginning to look like a hurricane, but there is still a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates, ranging from 45 to 77 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of only 45 kt. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity remains 60 kt for this advisory. Cristina could still become a hurricane today while it remains over waters warmer than 26 C and in low vertical wind shear conditions. However, by tonight the storm will likely be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. The combination of these negative factors for the storm should promote a steady weakening trend beginning tonight, and ultimately Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and in line with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, when Cristina becomes a weak and shallow system, a turn to the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.8N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100842 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt. Additionally, the minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday. Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the system is forecast to persist, little if any additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall. Weakening should commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt. During the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the Ohio Valley region. There has been little change to the official track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 37.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-07-10 04:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100239 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no observations near the center during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay. Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus models. Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between 48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present, suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight. The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week. The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with guidance in good agreement at this time. Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is basically an update of the earlier track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-07-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092057 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday. After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or Saturday. Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is indicated in the model fields. The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southern New England. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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