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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-07-10 22:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 102046 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. While isolated minor flooding is possible, widespread river flooding is not expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 39.5N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-07-10 22:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 605 WTPZ45 KNHC 102044 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a blend of the available estimates. The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is close to the HCCA guidance. It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a little longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kodama

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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-07-10 16:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 305 WTNT41 KNHC 101451 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time. The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 38.4N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 43.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 47.1N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 50.7N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-07-10 16:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However, this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt. It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin. By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term, and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous official forecast. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-07-10 14:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101200 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1200Z 37.6N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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