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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-07-11 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 924 WTPZ45 KNHC 111435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Over the past several hours, the coverage of deep convection around the center of Cristina has gradually decreased as the cyclone continues to move over relatively cool 24 C waters. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON all support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. Cristina is forecast to move over even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass over the next couple of days. These conditions should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 60 h, Cristina is forecast to have lost its deep convection near its center and become a remnant low. There is a chance that the convection could dissipate sooner than indicated, and Cristina could become a post-tropical cyclone while wind speeds are still greater than 30 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Cristina is moving just north of due west at 12 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. early on, then by the low level easterlies once the system becomes a remnant low. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered track guidance, and is little changed from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 20.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-11 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110833 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 The system has lacked significant organized deep convection for some time now, and therefore it has degenerated into a post-tropical low pressure system. The maximum sustained winds are estimated, perhaps generously, at 30 kt over the Atlantic waters well to the southeast of the center. Continued weakening is likely, and the cyclone should dissipate over eastern Canada by late Sunday. The low is moving just east of due north or around 010/15 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move between a mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and a trough near the Great Lakes until it loses its identity. This is the last advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 42.4N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days. Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-07-11 05:16:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 683 WTPZ45 KNHC 110316 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various estimates. Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general, the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days. Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific. After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-11 04:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110234 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New Jersey. A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on surface observations. Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and become post-tropical on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system over southeastern Canada. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial position and motion. The new forecast lies close to the consensus models. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now occurring well away from the center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread river flooding is not expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most of Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 41.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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