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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-05 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050238 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 The depression remains poorly organized, with a shrinking area of deep convection to the south of the partially exposed center. The intensity remains 30 kt pending receipt of scatterometer data this evening, perhaps generously. The cyclone should accelerate to the east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters stronger mid-level flow. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. After tonight's diurnal convective maximum period, the chances of the depression to strengthen are fairly low due to increasing shear and cooler waters. Thus only a slight increase in wind speed is forecast, similar to the model consensus. Extratropical transition is shown in a couple of days due to the system becoming embedded in a front and a mid-level trough. It is possible, however, that the depression will open up into a trough on Sunday, as suggested by the latest GFS model, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with the previous one. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds from the depression should start on Bermuda during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 32.5N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 37.0N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.7N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-04 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Overall, the depression's organization hasn't changed much since the last advisory. Cloud tops have warmed a little, but the overall pattern is the same, with deep convection limited to the south of the center. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier this morning showed max winds of 25-30 kt southeast of the depression's center, and is the primary basis for maintaining the 30 kt intensity. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. The official forecast is still based on the track and intensity consensus, with extra weight given to the dynamical models for the intensity. The depression is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward in the flow between a trough to its north and a ridge to its south. A combination of shear and dry air will likely prevent it from getting better organized, and no substantial strengthening is expected. By Monday morning, baroclinic forcing could allow the system to strengthen slightly before it undergoes extratropical transition or merges with a non-tropical weather system. Alternatively, the system could open into a trough on Sunday as its forward speed increases, as depicted by most of the global models. Since most of those models also show the low reforming a day later before it becomes extratropical, the NHC forecast carries the system as a continuous cyclone for the sake of simplicity. It should be stressed that the rain and gusty winds associated with the system as it passes near Bermuda overnight will be the same regardless of the state of its circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 31.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 33.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 35.3N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 41.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 44.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-04 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041451 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of organization. Although the low's center has recently become obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone will get much better organized during the next day or two. That said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 31.1N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 32.1N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 39.2N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 41.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-06-30 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302035 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Satellite images show that the cyclone continues to lack organized convection, and thus no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone. The system is now post tropical, and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial wind speed is 25 kt, perhaps generously, based on continuity. The low should weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure due to cool waters during the next day or so while it moves slowly northwestward. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 20.9N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 21.4N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-06-30 16:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301431 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 The depression's center remains exposed, with any limited convection displaced more than 90 n mi northeast of the center. Effectively, the system is on its way to becoming a remnant low this afternoon if convection does not re-form closer to the center. The initial wind speed remains 25 kt. The low should gradually spin down during the next day or two over cool waters while it moves slowly northwestward. Only a small northeastward shift was made to the track forecast, and the low should degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 20.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 20.9N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 21.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 21.2N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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