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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-30 10:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300835 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Deep convection associated with the depression has waned since last night and is now limited to a small burst displaced more than 75 n mi northeast of the cyclone's low-level center. An ASCAT-B pass at 0517 UTC showed max winds of only 20-25 kt, so the intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The cyclone is now located over 24 deg C waters and substantial redevelopment or organization of convection is unlikely. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low later today. The remnant low should then spin down over the course of the next couple of days until it dissipates later this week. The depression has continued to move slowly northwestward, steered by a mid-level ridge to its east. Once the cyclone becomes a remnant low later today, weak low-level steering flow will likely cause the system to meander for a few days until it dissipates. The NHC forecast (both track and intensity) is mostly unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 20.6N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 20.9N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 21.6N 114.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the convection has not been particularly well organized at times today, a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past several hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of 1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a 30-kt tropical depression. The system is expected to be a short- lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around 24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The NHC wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central Mexico. The cyclone should continue moving on the same general heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-06-27 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 232 WTPZ43 KNHC 270240 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 There was a brief burst of deep convection over the estimated center of Boris but, overall, the system is not very well organized. The cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast which is indicative of significant shear over the cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Boris will be moving through an environment of south-southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level low and associated trough near and to the west of 140W. This shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should cause gradual weakening and Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and similar to the latest DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Boris appears to have turned back toward a west-northwesterly heading and the motion estimate is 290/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward within the next 12 to 24 hours in response to a mid-level ridge to its north. Thereafter, the weakening low should begin to move a little south of west while embedded in the low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the latest model consensus. Since Boris is about to cross 140W longitude, it will be moving into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-06-26 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Boris is a little farther to the north than indicated in the previous advisory. The cyclone has a good low-level circulation, but the associated convection is currently disorganized due to a combination of southerly vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to cause slow weakening, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 60 h. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is a little uncertain, with the best estimate 315/6. Boris should turn west-northwestward during the next 12 h or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Subsequently, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast follows the general direction of the previous one, but with some adjustments from the previous forecast due to the more northward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.5N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-06-26 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261442 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear, with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS satellite consensus. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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