je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-26 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260847 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend over the next 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate shortly after 72 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track. Boris is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-26 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has decreased in coverage since the previous advisory, however a new band of convection has recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number of T2.5 or 35 kt from SAB. Boris remains within an area of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, however dry mid-level air just to the north and northwest of the storm continues to be entrained into the circulation. As a result, little change in strength is anticipated over the next 12 h or so, and after that time, Boris will be moving into the drier and more stable air mass which should cause gradual weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate between 72 and 96 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290 at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward, then west- southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and along the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.4N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-25 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252052 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased further in association with the tropical cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense overcast. A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris. While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time. Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12 h. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but it still is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-06-25 16:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased some this morning near the center of Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with scatterometer data from several hours ago. Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during that period. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-06-25 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 Thunderstorm activity has waned significantly near the center of the small cyclone, and is now restricted to the southwestern quadrant due to the ingestion of a large slug of dry mid-level air from the north and northeast. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on continuity with the previous advisory, and satellite current intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The small depression has been moving westward or 275/07 kt. The cyclone is forecast by the global models to move generally west-northwestward for the next 3 days along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Thereafter, a weakening and more shallow system is expected to turn toward the west and then west-southwest after moving into the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA. Despite moving through a regime of very light wind shear and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 2-3 days, the depression will skirt along the southwestern edge of an expansive region of cool, dry air located over the mid-Pacific. The statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models now show no intensification during the next 5 days, while the global and regional models show only very modest strengthening. The small size of the cyclone argues for at least some strengthening since only a small increase in convection can quickly spin up the low-level field. However, proximity to the aforementioned cool, stable air should prevent any significant intensification. By 72h and beyond, the unfavorable combination of increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, marginal SSTS, and a drier air mass are expected to cause the tropical cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low over the Central Pacific hurricane basin. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 10.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [281] [282] [283] [284] [285] [286] [287] [288] [289] [290] [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] [296] [297] [298] [299] [300] next »