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Discussion Draft, Expanding Opportunities for Affordable Housing

2019-10-28 22:07:16| PortlandOnline

Includes Zoning Code and map changes. Comments due December 2, 2019. Word Document, 11,026kbCategory: Documents

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 12

2019-10-28 15:40:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281440 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to 35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with Pablo. The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed. Additional information on this system can be found in: High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 46.8N 17.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 11

2019-10-28 09:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280835 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 Convection associated with Pablo has decreased significantly in both coverage and vertical depth during the past 6 hours, and the system barely meets the convective criterion to be classified as a tropical cyclone. What bit of convection that does remain is limited to the southeastern quadrant. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a TAFB T-number classification of T3.0/45 kt and an earlier ASCAT pass that showed some 45-kt vectors present in the southeastern quadrant. Pablo made a jog toward the northwest since the previous advisory, but the small cyclone now appears to be moving slowly northward or 360/04 kt. The latest model guidance remains in reasonable agreement that Pablo and its remnants will move slowly northward for the next day or so around the northeastern periphery of a large extratropical centered several hundred miles to the southwest. Pablo is expected to merge with the frontal zone and become post-tropical later today. Some additional weakening is likely during the next 24 hours due to Pablo moving over even cooler sea-surface temperatures than the 16.5 deg C water that the cyclone is currently passing over. Pablo's 34-kt wind radii have been separated from the larger parent extratropical low's wind field based on late-arriving ASCAT surface wind data that indicated that Pablo's small wind field a had detached from the larger wind radii associated with the broad extratropical low. Additional information on this complex low pressure system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service High Seas Forecasts under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 46.6N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 47.3N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/0600Z 48.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 10

2019-10-28 03:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280238 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, deep convection associated with Pablo finally began to decrease in both coverage and organization. Convection has become confined to the southern portion of the circulation and the eye is no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery, although a low-level eye feature was still noted in a recent GMI microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB. Pablo is approaching a frontal boundary that lies just to the north of the cyclone, and is also moving over SSTs of around 17C. This should cause the deep convection to continue to wane overnight, and Pablo is expected to become extratropical when it merges with the aforementioned front on Tuesday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a much larger extratropical low to its west by Tuesday morning. Recent microwave and satellite fixes show that Pablo's forward speed has begun to slow as expected, and its initial motion is now north or 360/12 kt. The dynamical models indicate that Pablo will continue to decelerate overnight as it moves generally northward. A slow northward motion should then continue on Monday as Pablo merges with the frontal zone and becomes post-tropical. The 12- and 24-h forecast wind radii were adjusted outward to account for the area of gale-force winds north of the frontal boundary that Pablo is expected to merge with late Monday or early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 46.0N 17.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 47.0N 17.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/0000Z 48.2N 17.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-10-27 21:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative. There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days. The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its west begins to steer the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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