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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-11-15 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however, recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged 35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond. The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight, however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time. Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. There has been little change in the track guidance since the last forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west. Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-11-15 09:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150845 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Recent satellite imagery indicates that there has been a slight increase in convective banding associated with the depression overnight. The deep convection has increased and become a little better organized over the southeastern portion of the circulation, however, the center remains near the northwestern edge of the primary convective mass. Earlier ASCAT data and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates all support an intensity of 30 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at that value. The depression has about 36 h in which to strengthen while it remains over SSTs of 28-29C and in generally low wind shear conditions. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and the early portion of the intensity forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid. By 48 hours, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is predicted by the global models as a large mid- to upper-level trough digs southward and cuts off to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The increase in shear should cause weakening, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low when it nears the southern portion of the Baja peninsula in about 72 hours. Dissipation should occur shortly thereafter as the shear increases further. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression is moving north- northwestward or 335/5 kt. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge should continue during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone should turn north-northeastward around the aforementioned trough to the west of the Baja California peninsula. As the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow by 72 hours, it is likely to turn northward or north-northwestward before dissipating. The track guidance has trended a little faster this cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near the TVCE and HCCA consensus models. Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These rains could cause in life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.5N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-11-15 03:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150232 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well south of the Baja California peninsula has now developed sufficently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression, the twentieth one of the 2019 eastern North Pacific season. The depression is producing two areas of thunderstorms, one near and east of the low-level center, and the other in bands over the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. The depression has a day or two to strengthen while it remains over warm waters, in relatively moist conditions, and in a low wind shear environment. In about 48 hours, however, a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and progressively drier air should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a weakening trend. The cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days and dissipate shortly thereafter when it moves into an extremely hostile upper-level environment. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance and is in best agreement with the HCCA consensus model. The depression is moving slowly north-northwestward in the flow on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster pace should occur during the next couple of days as the ridge strengthens and remains in place. After that time, a faster north-northeastward motion is expected as a large mid- to upper-level low digs to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn back to the left seems likely in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus models and brings the remnants of the depression near the southern Baja California peninsula in about 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.0N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 23.2N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-11-01 09:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Nov 01 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010832 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 AM AST Fri Nov 01 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that Rebekah has degenerated to a remnant low as the circulation remains void of deep convection. In addition, the system is starting to merge with a weak frontal system over the northeastern Atlantic. Re-development of deep convection appears unlikely, and the remnants of Rebekah are expected to weaken to a trough between 12-24 h. The initial motion is 095/17, and a slightly faster eastward motion is expected until the system dissipates. This is the last advisory issued on Rebekah by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. Hazard information for the Azores can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 40.6N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/1800Z 40.2N 24.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-11-01 03:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010232 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 Rebekah's cloud pattern consists of a tight swirl of low clouds, but most of the deep convection vanished a few hours ago. A recent ASCAT pass still shows a well defined circulation with winds of 35 kt. Consequently, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt in this advisory. Assuming that the convection, as anticipated does not return, Rebekah will become post-tropical cyclone soon and will likely dissipate in 24 hours or sooner. The cyclone is forecast to move eastward with the mid-latitude flow and as indicated by track models. Hazard information for the Azores can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 40.8N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 40.5N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion storm forecast

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