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Tropical Depression Norma Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-09-19 16:34:19| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-09-19 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191433 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Otis has been devoid of deep convection for about 10 hours, and the cyclone only consists of a compact swirl of low-level clouds. Therefore, Otis is now classified as a remnant low, and this is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center. ASCAT data from last night indicated that maximum winds were near 35 kt. Assuming some spin down since that time due to the loss of deep convection, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt. Continued weakening due to cool SSTs and dry air is expected, and Otis is expected to dissipate in a day or so. The remnant low has turned to the west in the low-level trade wind flow. A west to west-southwest motion is expected until the system dissipates. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 20/0000Z 18.6N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-19 10:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190853 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of the hurricane. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about 135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength. Another Air Force aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained category 5 intensity. Maria will be moving through a low-shear atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next couple of days. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events. Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36 hours. Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Jose. This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 4-5. There is fairly good agreement amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast is very similar to the previous one. This is generally near the left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and the corrected consensus predictions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 62.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 63.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 18.5N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 48H 21/0600Z 19.3N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 21.2N 70.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.7N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 26.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Norma Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-09-19 10:33:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-19 04:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190255 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were able to fly a single pass from northwest to southeast through the eye of Maria just prior to 0000 UTC. The aircraft found a peak SFMR wind of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall, i.e. category 5 intensity. Raw objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS reached as high as T7.3 just before the center moved over land. Based on these data, the initial wind speed was increased to 140 kt on the earlier special advisory, and that intensity is maintained for this advisory, although some slight weakening may have occurred as the small core of the hurricane passed over Dominica. Since the center has moved over land, the aircraft has not been able to make a second pass through the eye. The aircraft will be in the storm a few more hours and should be able to provide additional center fixes once the eye moves west of Dominica. Maria is forecast to remain within an environment of low wind shear and over warm water during the next couple of days. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, Maria is expected to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are possible due during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles. Land interaction and a slight increase in shear are likely to cause some gradual weakening after Maria moves over the southwestern Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Maria is moving west-northwestward or 300/8 kt. A weak ridge located over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of Maria is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 5. The track guidance is in good agreement and little change was required to the NHC track forecast through 72 hours. At days 4 and 5, the global model envelope has shifted slightly eastward and the NHC forecast was adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the HFIP correct consensus and ECMWF model. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.5N 61.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.9N 65.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.7N 66.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.8N 71.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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