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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 10

2017-09-16 23:01:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 21

2017-09-16 22:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162042 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 The system has been maintaining a small area of deep convection near the low-level center for the past several hours. The latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin have increased, and now support raising the initial intensity to 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm. Otis is expected to remain over 27 deg C waters and in a low wind shear environment for the next couple of days, and this should allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength. Beyond that time, an increase in shear, drier air, and cooler waters along the expected track should cause weakening, and Otis is now forecast to become a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, based on the higher initial intensity. The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering currents. The models remain in agreement that the storm should turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system loses convection, a turn back toward the west or west-southwest is predicted. The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one in the short term to account for the more westward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.2N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z 15.8N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-09-16 22:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 162038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Satellite images indicate that the system located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become much better organized throughout the day. The low-level center of circulation is now well defined, and banding features have become better established in all quadrants. The initial wind speed is increased to 45 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. This makes the system a tropical storm, Maria becomes the thirteenth named storm in the Atlantic basin this season. Maria is moving quickly westward at 17 kt on the south side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to remain in place but weaken some, which should cause Maria to move west-northwestward at a progressively slower pace through the forecast period. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official track forecast is closest to the HCCA model. This forecast takes the core of Maria near the Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, and close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in about 4 days. The tropical storm is located within conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and over warm 29 deg C SSTs. Since these conditions are not expected to change much, steady or even rapid strengthening is likely during the next 3 to 4 days. Slight weakening is predicted by the end of the forecast period due to some land interaction and a slight increase in wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is raised significantly from the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches will likely be issued tonight and Sunday. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as Sunday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 46

2017-09-16 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 162036 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through Jose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to 973 mb. A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed SFMR wind was 65 kt. Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity is held at 70 kt. The lack of significant intensification in spite of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering. Smoothing through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or 360/5 kt. This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the official forecast. Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight strengthening. However, the shear is expected to increase over 30 kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken. The hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72 hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves eastward away from New England. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 28.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 29.6N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.9N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 32.3N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 33.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 37.1N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 8

2017-09-16 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 162035 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Lee has changed little in organization since the last advisory, and the low-level center appears to be located along the northern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection. Dvorak estimates have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Lee is moving westward, or 270/9 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it should maintain that trajectory for the next 24 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge should develop, but the weak nature of the cyclone should prevent it from turning too sharply toward the northwest. The updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, and it continues to lie south of the various consensus aids, closest to the HCCA model. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but continued north-northwesterly shear is likely to prevent significant intensification. Weakening is anticipated from 48 hours onward due to increasingly hostile shear, and Lee is likely to become a depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The intensity models have come down a little on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is actually a little generous, staying close to the SHIPS model along the upper bound of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 12.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 12.6N 35.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 12.7N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 13.2N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 13.9N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 15.9N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 18.5N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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